Paul Lachine

Globální důsledky klesajících komoditních cen

NEW YORK – Skončil dekádu trvající boom komoditních cen. To má vážné dopady na globální růst HDP. Ekonomické vzorce se sice neopakují beze změn, ale konec stoupající fáze komoditního supercyklu, jíž svět procházel od počátku století, kalí vyhlídky rozvojových zemí na setrvalé svižné dotahování hladin příjmů vyspělých zemí.

Během roku, který skončil letos v červenci, se index komoditních cen časopisu The Economist v dolarových cenách propadl o 16,5 % (v eurech o 22,4 %), přičemž ceny kovů od dosažení maxima zkraje roku 2011 klesají už přes dva roky. Přestože ceny potravin projevily zprvu větší odolnost, v posledním roce se snížily strměji než ceny ostatních komodit. Vysoké (ač kolísavé) zůstávají jen ceny ropy, nepochybně vlivem spletitých politických událostí na Blízkém východě.

Z historického pohledu to není překvapení, jak dokládá náš výzkum zaměřený na komoditní supercykly. Od konce devatenáctého století komoditní ceny prošly třemi dlouhodobými cykly a stoupající fází čtvrtého, především vlivem změn globální poptávky. První dva cykly byly poměrně dlouhé (téměř čtyřicet let), ale třetí byl kratší (28 let).

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