Paul Lachine

Plan quinquennal chinois et taux d'intérêt mondiaux

CAMBRIDGE – Le nouveau plan quinquennal chinois aura des conséquences importantes pour l'économie mondiale. Il marque un changement de cap économique, car il fixe comme objectif premier l'augmentation de la consommation et du niveau de vie de la population, et non pas la croissance maximale du PIB. Bien que ce changement soit dicté par des considérations de politique intérieure, il pourrait avoir un impact significatif sur les flux de capitaux mondiaux et sur les taux d'intérêt.

Le taux de croissance élevé du PIB chinois depuis plus de 10 ans a certes permis une hausse du revenu réel de centaines de millions de Chinois, notamment dans les zones urbaines. Et l'argent que les Chinois qui travaillent dans les villes envoient à leur famille à la campagne a permis une élévation du niveau de vie de ces dernières.

Mais la croissance du PIB chinois a surtout bénéficié aux grandes entreprises nationalisées qui ont pu ainsi renforcer leur monopole. Jusqu'à présent ce PIB augmente plus vite que les salaires réels et que la consommation de la population chinoise. La majeure partie de la production étant destinée à l'exportation, l'excédent des comptes courants de la Chine était supérieur à 350 milliards de dollars l'année dernière.

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