Paul Lachine

中国的五年计划与全球利率

发自剑桥——中国的新五年计划将对全球经济产生极其重要的影响。该计划的主要特点就是将原本着眼于GDP增长最大化的官方政策转变为对消费以及劳动者平均生活水平的提高。虽然这一变化是由中国国内的一些因素所引发的,但它仍将对全球现金流和利率造成显著影响。

中国在过去几十年内的高GDP增长无疑使数亿中国人的收入得到了提高,而其中受益最大的则是那些居住在城市或是城郊区域的人们。而那些城市劳动者向农村老家的汇款同时也有助于提高后者的生活水平。

但实际工资和消费的增长速度却远远低于中国GDP总额的增长速度。事实上GDP的增长主要来自于大型国有企业,而这些企业也借此巩固了自身的行业垄断地位。此外还有大量的中国产品被输往国外,出口总额大幅超出进口总额,仅仅在去年就创造了3500亿美元的经常账户盈余。

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