Záhada čínského směnného kurzu

Náhlé rozhodnutí Číny zvýšit hodnotu žen-min pi (jüanu) o 2,1% a ukončit jeho fixaci na dolar přichází po několikaměsíčním tlaku ze strany USA. Tato překvapivá změna politiky pravděpodobně nějaký čas vydrží, protože stabilní měna zůstává i nadále v čínském zájmu.

Ekonom Robert Mundell, jehož práce v oblasti optimálních měnových zón si získala uznání jako teoretický základ vzniku eura, trvá na tom, že Čína by si měla podržet pevný směnný kurz coby nezbytnou součást stávající fáze svého hospodářského rozvoje. Vzhledem k nerovnoměrné ekonomické struktuře Číny způsobuje její režim směnného kurzu mnohem tíživější problémy, než s jakými se potýká Japonsko a další východoasijské ekonomiky.

Pevné směnné kurzy očividně tvořily významnou součást hospodářského vzestupu východní Asie, neboť v exportně orientovaném rozvojovém modelu regionu dobře fungují. Efektivitu pevného kurzu však určuje způsob, jakým rozvoj v exportním sektoru ovlivňuje domácí průmysl a ekonomiku země jako celku. Pokud růst v obchodním sektoru žene vzhůru i domácí neobchodní odvětví, pak pevný kurz nevyvíjí tlak na vnější platební rovnováhu, neboť roste i poptávka po dovozech.

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