中国的汇率谜题

中国突然决定将人民币(元)升值2.1%,并终止与美元的联系机制是对几个月来美方不断施压的回应。但这一次价值调整很可能是一次性的,而且人民币(汇率)也可能并不是要实行真正的自由浮动,因为稳定的货币对中国仍然是非常有利的。

的确,因最优货币区研究而被认为奠定了欧元理论基础的经济学家蒙代尔坚持认为,作为当前经济发展阶段的必要组成部分,中国应该维持固定汇率制。的确,许多观察家都将1985年广场协议以前日本奉行的汇率制度作为典范,但是,由于中国的经济结构不平衡,汇率制度引起的挑战性问题远比日本和其他东亚经济体遇到的要多。

联系汇率显然是东亚经济腾飞不可或缺的要素,这样的制度符合该地区以出口为导向的发展模式。但是固定汇率的有效性取决于出口的发展对国内工业乃至整个国家经济的影响。如果贸易的增长推动了国内非贸易部门的增长,则固定汇率不会给对外收支平衡带来压力,因为进口需求也在上涨。

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