Romper la adicción a la inversión de China

BEIJING – El modelo de crecimiento económico de China va quedando sin fuerzas. Según el Banco Mundial, durante los 30 años posteriores a las reformas económicas iniciadas por Deng Xiaoping, la inversión representó 6.8 puntos porcentuales de la tasa anual de crecimiento económico, que en promedio fue del 9,8%; mientras que la productividad contribuyó con tan sólo 2 a 4 puntos porcentuales. Debido a que enfrenta una demanda externa floja, consumo interno débil, costos laborales en aumento y productividad baja, China depende de manera excesiva de la inversión para impulsar su crecimiento económico.

Aunque este modelo es insostenible, la excesiva dependencia en la inversión de China no muestra señales de estar disminuyendo. De hecho, a medida que China se somete a un proceso de profundización del capital (un aumento cada vez mayor de capital por trabajador), se necesita aún más inversión para contribuir a una mayor producción y avance tecnológico en distintos sectores.

En el periodo 1995-2010, cuando el promedio de la tasa anual de crecimiento del PIB de China fue del 9,9%; la inversión en activos fijos (inversiones en infraestructuras y proyectos inmobiliarios) se incrementó por un factor de 11,2; creciendo a una tasa promedio anual del 20%. El total de inversión en activos fijos ascendió a 41,6% del PIB, en promedio, alcanzando un pico del 67% del PIB en el año 2009, este es un nivel que sería impensable en la mayoría de los países desarrollados.

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