Spezzare la dipendenza della Cina dagli investimenti

PECHINO – Il modello di crescita economica della Cina sta perdendo colpi. Secondo la Banca Mondiale, nei trent'anni successivi alla riforma economica avviata da Deng Xiaoping, gli investimenti rappresentavano il 6-8% del tasso di crescita economica annuo, pari al 9,8%, mentre l’incremento della produttività contribuiva solo nella misura di 2-4 punti percentuale. Di fronte alla debolezza della domanda esterna, alla riduzione del consumo interno, all'aumento del costo del lavoro e a una bassa produttività, la Cina dipende troppo dagli investimenti per stimolare la propria crescita economica.

Anche se tale modello non è sostenibile, l'eccessiva dipendenza della Cina dagli investimenti non accenna a diminuire. Di fatto, avendo intrapreso un processo di approfondimento di capitale (capitale crescente per lavoratore), servono maggiori investimenti per incrementare la produzione e lo sviluppo tecnologico in vari settori.

Negli anni 1995-2010, quando il tasso medio di crescita annua del Pil cinese era del 9,9%, gli investimenti di capitale fisso (in infrastrutture e progetti immobiliari) sono aumentati di un fattore pari a 11.2 punti percentuale, registrando una crescita media annua del 20%. Il totale degli investimenti di capitale fisso ammontava mediamente al 41,6% del Pil, con un picco del 67% registrato nel 2009, che sarebbe impensabile nella maggior parte dei Paesi sviluppati.

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