中国经济不能“穿新鞋走老路”

北京 一面是喊了多年的经济转型和结构调整,一面却延续着对经济增长的路径依赖。数据显示,2012年1月至11月,国内固定资产投资完成额累计同比回升至20.7%,新开工项目计划总投资与固定资产投资金来源累计同比均连续6个月回升、达年内最高水平,特别是在城镇化概念的强力推动下,一些基础设施、地方政府大型项目开足马力上马,中国经济似乎在“穿新鞋走老路”。

其实,当前中国经济面临的最大风险绝非经济失速的风险,而是对既有增长路的过度依赖。根据世行测算,改革开放30年中国年均9.8%的增长率,除了有2-4个百分点是全要素生产率贡献外,其余6-8个百分点的增长率几乎都是来自于投资的贡献。1995-2010年中国经济年平均增长率9.92%;1995年-2010年中国的固定资产投资规模增长11.23倍,年平均增长率达到20%,全社会固定资产投资占GDP的平均比重达到41.63%,2009年投资占GDP比重更是达到67.05%的历史最高水平。近几年,在外需不振、消费持续增长乏力的情况下,投资还是中国经济增长的主引擎。

中国投资率当然与中国资本深化进程有关,但与资本利用率低也不无关系。我们来考察增量资本产出率这一代表资本边际效率的指标。增量资本产出率(ICOR=投资增加量/生产总值增加量之比)表明,当ICOR提高时,增加单位总产出所需要资本增量增大,也就意味着投资的效率下降。笔者计算了中国1978年—2008年30年的实际ICOR。结果显示,中国增量资本产出率在改革开放之后边际资本产出比率均值为2.56,并在80年代中期和90年代初期达到高峰之后,在近5年又呈逐年上升趋势,这表明资本利用率加大,而投资效率呈下降态势。

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