中国的产能过剩之痛

发自上海 —— 让时光回到 1958 年,那个发动“大跃进”的年月,国家主席毛泽东对中国的钢铁工业寄予了厚望。在 1957 年钢产量仅有 500 万吨的情况下,他希望全国钢产量能在 1962 年时赶上甚至超过美国,达到 8000 万到 1 亿吨,并在 1970 年代中期达到 7 亿吨,让中国成为无可争议的世界钢材生产之王。而用来实现这一宏愿的,则是一些连专门钢铁生产技术都不具备的民众建立起来的“土法炼钢炉”。

时至今日,虽然时间有所推迟,但毛泽东赶超世界水平的梦想终于得到了实现,中国的钢铁年产量已经达到 6.6 亿吨,而其他工业部门也同样如此。到了 2008 年,中国在钢铁,水泥(两者都占全球总产量近半),铝(占全球 40% )和玻璃(占 31% )产量方面都位居世界第一。中国的汽车产量在 2009 年超过了美国,而在造船方面仅仅落后于韩国,拿下了全球造船总吨位的 36%

对于北京的决策者来说,中国工业的规模带来却是一座警钟而不是庆功的号角。在中国国务院 9 26 日下达的一份文件中,国家发展和改革委员会(简称发改委)警告在多个行业都出现了严重的产能过剩。(中国国务院,由总理,副总理及各部委负责人组成,是中国政府的最高行政机关)

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