Das chinesische Dollar-Problem

CAMBRIDGE – Wann wird China endlich einsehen, dass es nicht ewig Dollars anhäufen kann? China besitzt nämlich schon über 2 Billionen. Möchten die Chinesen in fünf bis zehn Jahren wirklich auf 4 Billionen Dollar sitzen? Da die amerikanische Regierung gebannt auf die langfristigen Kosten der Rettungsprogramme für den Finanzsektor sowie die unerbittlich steigenden Sozialausgaben blickt, stellt sich die Frage, ob man sich nicht langsam Sorgen vor einer Wiederholung der europäischen Erfahrungen in den 1970er Jahren machen muss.

In den 1950er und 1960er Jahren häuften die Europäer enorme Bestände an amerikanischen Treasuries an, um die fixe Wechselkursanbindung zu erhalten, wie es China heute auch macht. Unglücklicherweise schmolz die Kaufkraft der in europäischen Händen befindlichen Dollars aber in den 1970er Jahren, als die Kosten des Vietnam-Krieges und ein drastischer Anstieg des Ölpreises letztlich zu einer unheilvollen Steigerung der Inflationsrate führten.

Womöglich sollte man sich in China keine Sorgen machen. Schließlich erklärten Spitzenpolitiker aus aller Welt beim G-20-Gipfel in Pittsburgh, jede mögliche Maßnahme ergreifen zu wollen, um die Wiederholung einer derartigen Entwicklung zu verhindern. Eine tragende Säule ihrer Präventionsstrategie ist die Reduktion der „globalen Ungleichgewichte“, wie man das riesige US-Handelsbilanzdefizit  und die damit verbundenen Handelsbilanzüberschüsse anderswo – nicht nur in China – beschönigend nennt.

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