La población decrépita de China

Parece que el gobierno chino por fin está reconociendo los desafíos urgentes que plantea el envejecimiento de la población del país. El 12 de diciembre hizo público un libro blanco sobre el problema redactado a nivel del gabinete –el primero de su tipo—en un intento por hacer frente a la perspectiva de los costos crecientes de seguridad social y atención de la salud, un mercado laboral en contracción y otros obstáculos potenciales al mantenimiento del rápido crecimiento económico.

Mirando hacia atrás, es irónico que la política draconiana de “un solo hijo” del gobierno chino, adoptada en 1979, se haya aplicado al mismo tiempo que la política de “puertas abiertas”, orientada a atraer inversión extranjera en el sector manufacturero intensivo en mano de obra. Si bien se debe considerar que ambas políticas fueron exitosas, a lo largo de los años el programa de planificación familiar ha contribuido al envejecimiento de la población que puede disminuir el atractivo de China como un centro de producción intensivo en mano de obra de bajo costo.

Durante las casi tres décadas desde que se adoptó la política de “un solo hijo”, el número de niños nacidos vivos ha caído de 22.5 millones por año a principios de los 1980 a alrededor de 16-17 millones para mediados de la presente década. Además, con el creciente número de ancianos debido al aumento de las expectativas de vida, esta baja tasa de nacimientos ha significado que los mayores de 64 años hayan pasado del 4.9% al 7.7 % de la población.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/8qbwxQ2/es;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now