中国趋于老化的人口

中国政府最终似乎认识到了这个国家日趋老化的人口所带的紧迫挑战。12月12日,中国政府第一次发表了关于该问题的白皮书,希望尽力克服越来越高的社会保险和医疗费用、日趋严峻的劳动力市场以及其他潜在的障碍以便继续推动其经济的快速增长。

回过头来看,中国政府在1979年开始实行的严厉的“独生子女”政策,与旨在吸引劳动密集型的外国制造业投资的“开放”政策在同时实行很具有讽刺意味。两项政策应该说都取得了成功,但是多年以后计划生育政策所带来的是越来越老化的人口,这也许会削弱中国作为一个低费用的劳动密集型制造中心的吸引力。

在“独生子女”政策推行的近三十年时间里,每年出生的新生儿从二十世纪八十年代早期的2250万降到了近几年的大约1600-1700万。此外,因为预期寿命的增高带来了老年人口的增加,这种低出生率使得65岁以上的老年人的比率从总人口的4.9%增加到了7.7%。

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