Barrie Maguire

中国在朝鲜的选择

东京——

如果任何独裁统治最危险的时刻出现在改革前夕,那么朝鲜看起来距离改革不远了。最近炮轰韩国的行为表明,日薄西山金氏王朝宁愿将东亚拖入战火,也不愿实施真正的改革。如果和平果真是中国崛起的关键成分,那么中国必须让躁动不安的朝鲜平静下来。

理解“隐士王国”就好比是窥探黑洞。有人认为朝鲜对韩国延坪岛的炮击可能是意在转移国内矛盾,使民众不再关心经济崩溃或是“亲爱领袖”金正日的死讯,也有可能是在为金正日之子、27岁的 “年轻的将军”金正云接班造势,树立其军事领导人的形象。也有人将炮击视为不过是长期挑衅的又一招,不必大惊小怪。

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