Paul Lachine

Chinas schlechte Wachstumswette

LONDON: Ich war vor kurzem zweimal in China, gerade als die Regierung dort ihren 12. Fünfjahresplan zur Neuaustarierung des langfristigen Wachstumsmodells des Landes vorlegte. Meine Besuche verstärkten meine Ansicht, dass ein potenziell destabilisierender Widerspruch zwischen Chinas kurz- und mittelfristiger Wirtschaftsleistung besteht.

Chinas Volkswirtschaft ist dabei, heiß zu laufen, doch im Laufe der Zeit werden sich ihre derzeitigen Überinvestitionen deflationär auswirken – sowohl zu Hause als auch weltweit. Sobald eine weitere Steigerung der Anlageinvestitionen unmöglich wird, was nach 2013 der Fall sein dürfte, wird China einen steilen Konjunktureinbruch erleben. Statt sich darauf zu konzentrieren, heute eine weiche Landung hinzubekommen, sollte sich die chinesische Politik Gedanken darüber machen, dass das Wirtschaftswachstum möglicherweise in der zweiten Hälfte des neuen Jahrfünfts gegen die Wand fährt.

Trotz der Rhetorik des neuen Fünfjahresplans, der wie schon der vorherige darauf abzielt, den Konsumanteil am BIP zu steigern, ist der Weg des geringsten Widerstandes der Status quo. Die Einzelheiten des neuen Plans zeigen, dass sich das Wachstum statt auf eine schnelleren Währungsaufwertung, substantielle Finanztransfers an die Haushalte, die Besteuerung und/oder Privatisierung staatseigener Unternehmen, die Liberalisierung des Wohnsitzkontrollsystems (Hukou-System) oder eine Abmilderung der finanziellen Repressionen weiter auf Investitionen stützt, darunter auch im Bereich des öffentlichen Wohnungsbaus.

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