Paul Lachine

中国的赌博式恶性增长

发自伦敦——最近我先后两次踏足中国,恰逢政府启动“十二五计划”以重新调整其长期增长模式的时间点。而这两次访问使我更加深信:中国的短期和中期经济状况之间存在着可能影响稳定的潜在冲突性因素。

中国经济目前已经过热,但再过一段时间,当前的过度投资将引发其国内乃至全球的通货紧缩。一旦不断增加的固定资产投资无以为继——这很可能在2013年发生——中国经济的发展就可能严重放缓。可见中国的政策制定者应当关注的不是如何确保在当前实现软着陆,而是经济发展可能在五年计划后半段严重受阻的问题。

虽然新计划也像上一个五年计划那样宣称要增大消费占GDP的比例——但对政府来说,政治阻力最小的做法依然是维持现状。公开发布的新计划细节也显示:经济的增长依然要仰仗投资(包括兴建公共住房)来支撑,而不是以实施更迅速的货币升值,面向家庭的大规模财政转移支付,税收和/或国有企业的私有化,解除户口制度限制以及放宽财政管制的方式来实现。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/SyUoyVs/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now