Paul Lachine

中国的赌博式恶性增长

发自伦敦——最近我先后两次踏足中国,恰逢政府启动“十二五计划”以重新调整其长期增长模式的时间点。而这两次访问使我更加深信:中国的短期和中期经济状况之间存在着可能影响稳定的潜在冲突性因素。

中国经济目前已经过热,但再过一段时间,当前的过度投资将引发其国内乃至全球的通货紧缩。一旦不断增加的固定资产投资无以为继——这很可能在2013年发生——中国经济的发展就可能严重放缓。可见中国的政策制定者应当关注的不是如何确保在当前实现软着陆,而是经济发展可能在五年计划后半段严重受阻的问题。

虽然新计划也像上一个五年计划那样宣称要增大消费占GDP的比例——但对政府来说,政治阻力最小的做法依然是维持现状。公开发布的新计划细节也显示:经济的增长依然要仰仗投资(包括兴建公共住房)来支撑,而不是以实施更迅速的货币升值,面向家庭的大规模财政转移支付,税收和/或国有企业的私有化,解除户口制度限制以及放宽财政管制的方式来实现。

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