Первый шаг Китая

Каковы бы ни были конечные экономические результаты первого скромного шага Китая по направлению к введению свободно колеблющегося валютного курса, нельзя не восхищаться его стратегическим великолепием. Гениальность мини-хода Китая, разрешившего 2% рост курса юаня по отношению к доллару, заключается в том, что никто не может предсказать, когда или что произойдет дальше.

Протекционисты в Соединенных Штатах и Европе, у которых чешутся руки наложить высокие штрафные тарифы на китайские товары, оказались застигнуты врасплох. Они хотят и дальше купаться во внимании прессы, но если их критика в отношении Китая зайдет слишком далеко в слишком короткий срок, может создаться впечатление, что протекционисты мешают проведению деликатных закулисных переговоров.

Однако никто не знает, является ли первый шаг Китая началом чего-то гораздо большего, поскольку китайские власти то делают определенные намеки, то отказываются на следующий день от собственных слов. Сделав небольшую уступку интенсивному мировому давлению с целью заставить его переоценить свой валютный курс, китайское руководство искусно отвело растущее количество требований допустить внешнее влияние на растущий избыток торгового баланса Китая. Главный вопрос однако остается прежним: игнорирует ли Китай рыночные силы с риском для самого себя?

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