中国の小さな一歩

中国が踏み出した流動相場制への控えめな第一歩が、経済にどう影響を及ぼすにせよ、我々はその戦略の巧妙さに感服するべきだろう。今回の小幅な改革(人民元の為替レートを対ドルで2%切り上げ)は、この先いつどう動くのか、全く予想がつけられない点が特質的である。

中国製品に対する厳しい報復関税を望んでいた欧米の保護貿易主義者らは、不意打ちをくらわされている。彼らは常に意見を報道に流していたいだろうが、中国バッシングをあまり急に強めれば、舞台裏でのデリケートな交渉を邪魔する者と写るだろう。

しかし、中国の小さな一歩が、今後大きな前進へ繋がっているかどうかは、誰にも断言できないのも事実である。中国当局の方針はあいまいだ。中国は、為替レートの平価切り上げを迫る国際社会の圧力をほんの少し和らげることで、高まる貿易黒字抑制の声を横柄に牽制した。しかし、重要な疑問は、果たして中国は自らの責任で市場の力に反抗しているのかということだ。

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