Chinas erster Minischritt

Ungeachtet dessen, wie sich Chinas erster bescheidener Schritt in Richtung eines freien Wechselkurses seiner Währung wirtschaftlich letztlich auswirkt, ist die strategische Brillianz dieses Schrittes zu bewundern. Das Geniale an dieser Minimaßnahme (nämlich die Aufwertung des Yuan um 2 % gegenüber dem Dollar) besteht darin, dass niemand sagen kann, was als nächstes passieren wird und wann. 

Die Protektionisten in den Vereinigten Staaten und in Europa, die darauf brennen, chinesische Waren mit riesigen Strafzöllen zu belegen, traf dieser Schritt unvorbereitet. Sie wollen weiter im medialen Rampenlicht stehen. Wenn diese Protektionisten aber mit ihren China-Beschimpfungen zu weit gehen, wird man sie als Hindernis für die heiklen Verhandlungen hinter den Kulissen betrachten.

Allerdings weiß niemand, ob dieser chinesische Minischritt der Startschuss für weit umfassendere Maßnahmen ist, welche die chinesischen Behörden an einem Tag andeuten und am nächsten Tag dementieren. Indem man dem heftigen internationalen Druck zur Währungsaufwertung ein wenig nachgab, gelang es der chinesischen Führung meisterhaft, jene Stimmen zu ersticken, die eine Eindämmung seines wachsenden Handelsbilanzüberschusses fordern. Die Schlüsselfrage bleibt allerdings, ob China sich auf eigenes Risiko den Marktkräften entgegensetzt.

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