L’appréciation lilliputienne du yuan

Quel que soit le résultat final du modeste pas accompli par la Chine pour laisser flotter le yuan, on ne peut qu’admirer le brio de sa stratégie. Le coup de génie de la mini-réévaluation du yuan (qui a augmenté de 2% face au dollar) est que personne ne peut prédire la suite.

En Amérique et en Europe, les partisans du protectionnisme qui brûlaient d’envie d’imposer des tarifs douaniers des plus sévères sur les marchandises chinoises ont joué de maladresse. Ils veulent continuer à faire les gros titres des journaux, mais s’ils vont trop loin et trop vite dans leur campagne anti-chinoise, ils passeront pour être un obstacle à de délicates négociations en coulisse.

Personne ne sait si le pas lilliputien fait par la Chine n’est qu’un début, ainsi que les autorités chinoises le laissent entendre un jour pour le démentir le jour suivant. En faisant une concession minimale face à la pression mondiale qui s’exerçait sur eux pour qu’ils réévaluent le yuan, les dirigeants chinois ont joué de main de maître pour apaiser le mécontentement grandissant face à l’excédent commercial en perpétuelle croissance de la Chine. La question fondamentale reste cependant de savoir si elle brave les forces du marché à ses risques et périls.

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