Chris Van Es

Las ambiciones de antifragilidad de China

HONG KONG – En su camino hacia una prosperidad sostenible incluyente, China se encuentra nuevamente en una encrucijada. En el Congreso del Partido Comunista Chino de noviembre, a la nueva dirigencia se le hizo la encomienda de idear el trayecto del país para los próximos diez años, lo que implica modernizar los sistemas económicos, políticos y sociales de China en el marco de sus limitaciones históricas y cambiante contexto geopolítico.

Bajo cualquier estándar, la agenda de reformas es ambiciosa –especialmente dado lo frágil y adverso que es el ambiente externo. A lo largo de la siguiente década, los dirigentes chinos tienen que diseñar y poner en aplicación reformas para combatir la corrupción; apoyar la migración a las ciudades (por ejemplo, liberalizar el sistema de registro de viviendas); promover la innovación tecnológica; reequilibrar las fuentes de crecimiento económico; mejorar los estándares ambientales y laborales; y crear un sistema de bienestar social, incluidos servicios de salud, educación, así como seguridad social.

Para asegurar la sostenibilidad del sistema, su diseño tiene que tomar en cuenta lo que Nassim N. Taleb llamó eventos raros de tipo “cisne negro” –que, como lo demostró la crisis económica global, sí existen y tienen consecuencias devastadoras. Aunque serían insuficientes las medidas que solo estén destinadas a hacer los sistemas más resistentes o robustos. No solo deberían resistir la volatilidad, sino que deberían servir para tomar ventaja del caos y las tensiones.

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