Chris Van Es

Les ambitions d’antifragilité de la Chine

HONG KONG – La Chine est une nouvelle fois parvenue à un carrefour dans sa recherche d’une prospérité durable pour tous. Lors du congrès du Parti communiste chinois en novembre, le nouveau leadership a été chargé de prévoir l’évolution du pays pour la prochaine décennie, qui nécessite la modernisation des systèmes social, politique et économique de la Chine, dans les contraintes de son histoire et de son contexte géopolitique en évolution.

L’agenda des réformes est clairement ambitieux – en particulier étant donné l’environnement externe fragile et peu accommodant. Au cours de la prochaine décennie, les leaders chinois devront concevoir et appliquer des réformes pour combattre la corruption ; soutenir la migration vers les villes (comme par la libéralisation du système d’enregistrement des immeubles) ; promouvoir l’innovation technologique ; rééquilibrer les sources de croissance économique ; élever les standards environnementaux et du travail ; et construire le système d’assistance sociale du pays, y compris les soins de santé, l’éducation et la sécurité sociale.

Pour assurer la soutenabilité du système, il doit tenir compte des évènements rares que Nassim N. Taleb a appelé « cygne noir » (black swan) – qui, comme la crise économique globale a démontré, peuvent effectivement survenir, avec des conséquences dévastatrices. Cependant, des mesures pour rendre les systèmes plus « résilients » ou « robustes » seraient incomplètes. Ils doivent non seulement être capables de résister à la volatilité ; ils doivent être préparés à tirer profit du stress et du chaos.

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