Chris Van Es

中国的抗脆弱之路

香港——中国实现包容性可持续繁荣的征程再次面临十字路口。去年十一月中国共产党代表大会上选出的新一届领导班子,一方面必须面对中国历史和千变万化的地缘政治的限制, 另一方面必须描绘中国未来十年蓝图,并担当实现中国社会、政治和经济体制现代化的重任。

无论以何种标准衡量,用雄心勃勃来形容中国的改革目标都毫不过分——尤其是考虑到冷漠而脆弱的外部环境。今后十年,中国领导人必须设计并贯彻改革来打击腐败;通过放开户口管制支持城市化;推动技术创新;平衡经济增长点;提高环境和劳工标准;建立包括医疗、教育和社会保障在内的全国社会保障体系。

为确保实现可持续发展,设计制度时必须考虑到纳西姆•塔勒布提出的所谓罕见的“黑天鹅”事件。全球经济危机爆发证明“黑天鹅”事件的确会发生,并造成灾难性后果。但仅有增强系统“弹性”或“活力”的措施是远远不够的。系统不仅应该能够承受波动,还应该在压力和混乱中不断成熟。

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