El efecto bumerang de la ley antisecesión de China

El refrendo de cualquier ley por el Congreso Nacional Popular de China es siempre una mera formalidad, pero la polémica legislación para declarar ilegal la secesión de Taiwán ha resultado ser cualquier cosa menos rutinaria. Ha puesto el listón más alto para el bando independentista de la isla y ha aumentado el riesgo de un conflicto militar entre las dos riberas del Estrecho.

El impreciso lenguaje de la ley antisecesión y el intento de suavizar la expresión –tal vez encaminado a aplacar a los críticos extranjeros- aumenta paradójicamente -en lugar de reducir- la probabilidad de que China y los Estados Unidos se vean arrastrados involuntariamente a un conflicto militar evitable. Al no exponer claramente los posibles o supuestos límites que Taiwán no debe traspasar, la ley se presta a que haya cálculos o interpretaciones erróneos.

Pese a las varias semanas de intensas presiones por parte de los Estados Unidos para que se suavizara –o incluso se retirara- la propuesta de ley, los dirigentes de China se limitaron prácticamente a reforzar su posición de que las medidas “no pacíficas” (es decir, militares) serían estrictamente un último recurso... cosa que, de todos modos, ya se daba por sentada. La reacción del Gobierno de Bush ha sido inusitadamente categórica, con su llamamiento para que “Beijing reconsiderara la aprobación de esa ley”... injerencia, expresada de forma directa, en lo que China considera un asunto interno.

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