Chinas Antiabspaltungsgesetz erweist sich als Bumerang

Die Verabschiedung von Gesetzen durch den zu allem Ja und Amen sagenden chinesischen Volkskongress ist immer eine reine Formsache. Die kontroversen Gesetze über das Verbot einer Abspaltung Taiwans waren allerdings alles andere als Routine. Damit erhöhte sich der Einsatz für die nach Unabhängigkeit strebenden Kräfte in Taiwan und auch das Risiko einer militärischen Auseinandersetzung zwischen den beiden Seiten der Taiwanstraße.

Die nebulöse Sprache des Gesetzes und der Versuch, den Formulierungen die Spitzen zu nehmen – womit man möglicherweise ausländische Kritiker besänftigen möchte – erhöhen paradoxerweise die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass sich China und die Vereinigten Staaten unabsichtlich und widerwillig in einen vermeidbaren militärischen Konflikt hineinziehen lassen. Aufgrund der Tatsache, dass man Taiwan keine klaren oder potenziellen „roten Linien“ vorgibt, lässt das neue Gesetz viel Raum für beträchtliche Fehleinschätzungen und Missdeutungen.

Trotz mehrwöchigen intensiven Drucks von Seiten der USA, die Gesetzesvorlage abzumildern – oder überhaupt zurückzuziehen – tat die chinesische Führung nicht mehr, als ihrer Haltung Nachdruck zu verleihen und zu bekräftigen, dass „nicht friedliche“ (also militärische) Maßnahmen nur als letzter Ausweg angewandt würden – das hatte man ohnehin angenommen. Die Reaktion der Bush-Administration darauf war selten unverblümt und man forderte, „Peking möge die Verabschiedung des Gesetzes noch einmal überdenken“ - eine sehr direkt formulierte Einmischung in eine von China als innere Angelegenheit betrachtete Frage.

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