中国的阿富汗博弈

马德里—在其新著《论中国》(On China)中,亨利·基辛格用中国和西方的传统博弈游戏——围棋和象棋——来说明双方在国际权力政治方面的不同态度。象棋的目标是完全胜利,争夺的是克劳塞维茨所谓的“重心”,旨在最终完全消灭敌人,而围棋追求的是通过避免直接冲突的包围战略获得相对优势。

这一文化反差可以作为观察中国如何管理当前与西方之争的指南。中国的阿富汗政策便是竞争中的一项,且颇为符合围棋之道。在美国准备从阿富汗撤军的同时,中国必须处理好不确定性很大的战后状况。

阿富汗对中国具有关键性的战略利益,但中国领导人从未想过要通过战争维护这一利益。阿富汗是中国西陲的关键安全区域、中国确保其在巴基斯坦(中印之争中中方的传统盟友)利益的重要走廊,也是中国获得该地区关键性自然资源的通道。此外,在与阿富汗接壤的新疆自治区,穆斯林占据着人数优势,局势很不稳定,很容易受到塔利班和中国分裂分子的渗透。

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