中国的“和平”崛起?

最近几周,中国宣布将其国防开支增加12.6%,美国中央情报局局长Porter Goss证实了台湾海峡日益恶化的军事平衡,乔治·W·布什总统要求欧洲不要解除对华军售禁令。然而,中国领导人已经谈及中国的“和平崛起”,或最近提出的“和平发展”的说法。

诸如芝加哥大学的约翰·米尔夏默(John Mearsheimer)等分析家已经断言,中国不可能和平崛起,并预言“美国与中国很有可能陷入一场紧张激烈且涉及可观战争潜力的安全竞争”。乐观主义者指出,自1990年代起中国一直奉行友好的邻交政策,解决了边境争端,在国际机构中扮演越来越重要的角色,并且认识到了使用软力量的益处。但是怀疑论者反驳说,中国只是在等待经济强大为其未来的霸权作准备。

谁是谁非?我们暂时还不得而知,但是争论者们应该想起修西底德(Thucydides)在两千多年前的警告,持有战争必然发生的信念会成为导致战争的主要原因。由于任何一方都相信争端最终要以战争方式结束,就会采取合理的军事准备,而这在另一方看来证实了他们的担忧。

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