中国的3.2万亿美元大麻烦

北京——标准普尔降低美国政府债务评级之举重创了全球金融市场,对此最紧张的应该是中国:其3.2万亿美元的官方外汇储备的绝大部分(超过60%)是美元资产,其中包括1.1万亿美元的美国国债。

只要美国政府不违约,降级带给中国的损失总归是有限的。美元固然会下跌,从而有损于中国人民银行的资产负债表。但贬值的美元会降低中国消费者和企业买美国商品的成本。如果美国物价保持稳定(现状正是如此),购买美国商品成本降低的好处将正好抵消人民银行资产负债表的损失。

此外,降级将迫使美国财政部提高新债利率,这也能使中国获利。但标普给美国国债降级是个糟糕的决策,选择的时机不对。如果美国国债真的已不如过去那样信誉卓著,那么在8月2日奥巴马总统和国会就提高政府债务上限问题达成一致的时候,美国国债应该更加值得怀疑。

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