Hong Kong skyline

El riesgo mundial de que a China le vaya mal... o bien

NUEVA DELHI – Los líderes de las finanzas mundiales se dirigen a Washington para la reunión anual de abril del Fondo Monetario Internacional, y sus esperanzas (y temores) están centrados en China. El gigante asiático es el único país capaz de darle un empujón a la vacilante recuperación de la economía global; pero su propio crecimiento se apoya en cimientos que muestran cada vez más signos de fatiga. El dilema es que tanto si al plan económico de China le va bien como si le va mal, hay riesgos para la economía mundial.

Un eventual fracaso generaría una situación única en la historia desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Al ser la economía china tan grande, los efectos se sentirían en todo el mundo. Pero a diferencia de 2008, cuando la apreciación del dólar estadounidense permitió a los mercados emergentes recuperarse en poco tiempo, una desaceleración importante de China puede provocar la devaluación del yuan, lo que sembraría deflación en todas partes.

Otros países tal vez responderían devaluando intencionalmente sus monedas. De modo que una debacle en China puede generar una situación parecida a los años treinta: guerra de divisas y hundimiento de la actividad económica real.

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