Hong Kong skyline

Die Risiken von Chinas Erfolg oder Misserfolg

NEU DELHI – Beim jährlichen Frühlingstreffen der führenden Finanzpolitiker in Washington DC ist absehbar, dass sich die Hoffnungen – und Ängste – der Teilnehmer um China drehen werden. Immerhin ist China das Land, das die stockende Erholung der Weltwirtschaft wieder ins Rollen bringen könnte, auch wenn die Grundlage seines eigenen Wirtschaftswachstums immer mehr unter Druck steht. Das Dilemma ist, dass sowohl der Erfolg als auch das Scheitern Chinas für die Weltwirtschaft Risiken birgt.

Historisch gesehen wäre ein Szenario des Scheiterns für die Zeit nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg ein einmaliges Ereignis. Da Chinas Volkswirtschaft so groß ist, hätte dies Auswirkungen auf die ganze Welt. Aber im Gegensatz zu 2008, als der US-Dollar aufwertete und den Schwellenländern eine schnelle Erholung ermöglichte, würde im Fall eines ernsten Rückgangs der chinesischen Wirtschaft der Renminbi wahrscheinlich abwerten, was eine weitreichende Deflation zur Folge hätte.

Auch andere Währungen könnten abwerten, manche davon aufgrund gezielter Politik. Und so könnte ein Szenario des chinesischen Scheiterns zu Ereignissen wie in den 1930ern führen, die durch konkurrierende Abwertung und stark rückläufige realwirtschaftliche Aktivitäten geprägt waren.

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