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Le monde au risque de l'économie chinoise

NEW DELHI – Dans un contexte économique maussade, les dirigeants financiers de la planète sont réunis à Washington pour la réunion de printemps du FMI. Tous leurs regards en termes d'espoir mais aussi de crainte sont tournés vers la Chine. Il y a des raisons à cela : c'est le seul pays capable de relancer une économie mondiale dont la croissance reste fragile, par contre sa propre croissance repose sur une base de plus en plus incertaine. Or tant le succès que l'échec de la Chine présentent des risques pour l'économie mondiale.

Un échec serait un cas unique depuis la fin de la Deuxième Guerre mondiale. La taille de l'économie chinoise est telle qu'un échec aurait des répercussions mondiales. Mais contrairement à ce qui s'est passé en 2008 quand le dollar s'est apprécié, favorisant ainsi une reprise rapide des marchés émergents, en cas de fort ralentissement de l'économie chinoise, le yuan se déprécierait probablement, provoquant une déflation mondiale.

D'autres devises pourraient être entraînées dans la chute du yuan, parfois en raison d'un choix délibéré. Aussi un effondrement économique de la Chine pourrait ressembler à la crise des années 1930, avec des dévaluations concurrentielles et le plongeon de l'économie réelle.

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