Hong Kong skyline

中国失败和成功的风险

新德里—全世界金融领导人正准备齐聚华盛顿参加国际货币基金组织(IMF)春季年会,他们的希望——以及恐惧——都集中在中国身上。毕竟,中国是可能有能力让全球经济复苏全力启动的国家;但其自身经济增长的基础正在日益表现出吃紧的信号。困境在于不管中国的失败还是成功都会给世界经济带来风险。

失败情景将是二战后历史上前所未有的。中国经济规模巨大,其后果将蔓延全世界。2008年,美元升值使得新兴市场得以迅速复兴,与此不同的是,如果中国经济遭到严重衰退,人民币可能贬值,把通缩输出到全世界。

其他货币也可能贬值,其中不乏有意为之的情况。因此,中国失败的情景可能类似于20世纪30年代,其特征为竞争性贬值,实体经济活动剧减。

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