Hong Kong skyline

مخاطر فشل الصين ــ ونجاحها

نيودلهي ــ بينما يجتمع زعماء المال على مستوى العالم في واشنطن العاصمة في إطار اجتماع الربيع السنوي لصندوق النقد الدولي، فإن آمالهم ــ ومخاوفهم ــ تتمحور حول الصين. ففي نهاية المطاف، تُعَد الصين الدولة الوحيدة التي ربما تكون قادرة على تنشيط تعافي الاقتصاد العالمي المتوقف؛ ومع هذا يستند نموها الاقتصادي على أساس يُظهِر على نحو متزايد علامات الإجهاد. والمعضلة هي أن فشل الصين أو نجاحها يحمل مخاطر تهدد الاقتصاد العالمي.

وسوف يكون سيناريو الفشل فريدا من نوعه في تاريخ ما بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية. فبسبب ضخامة اقتصاد الصين، سوف يتردد صدى العواقب في مختلف أنحاء العالم. ولكن على النقيض مما حدث في عام 2008، عندما ارتفعت قيمة الدولار الأميركي على النحو الذي سمح للأسواق الناشئة باستعادة قوتها ونشاطها بسرعة، فمن المرجح أن تنخفض قيمة الرنمينبي إذا شهد اقتصاد الصين تراجعا كبيرا إلى الحد الذي يدفع الانكماش إلى الانتشار في كل مكان.

وقد تنخفض قيمة عملات أخرى أيضا، وبعضها نتيجة لسياسة متعمدة. ونتيجة لهذا فإن سيناريو فشل الصين ربما يشبه أحداث ثلاثينيات القرن العشرين التي اتسمت بخفض قيمة العملات بشكل تنافسي وتراجع النشاط الاقتصادي الحقيقي بشكل حاد.

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