

Though Polish voters in October ousted their right-wing populist government, recent elections in Slovakia and the Netherlands show that populism remains as malign and potent a political force as ever in Europe. But these outcomes also hold important lessons for the United States, where the specter of Donald Trump’s return to the White House haunts the runup to the 2024 presidential election.
发自北京——没有两次危机是相同的。最近几场金融动荡——1990年代末的亚洲金融危机,2000年的互联网危机和2008~2009年的全球金融危机——都是这样。而由战争、瘟疫、饥荒和疫情等地缘战略冲击引发的危机也是如此。
当下我们正目睹着这两个动荡来源——硅谷银行的破产所体现的金融危机和美中两国冷战加深所体现的地缘战略危机——之间的潜在致命相互作用。虽然两场危机的起源各不相同,但从某种意义上说这其实并不重要:它们相互作用的影响可能会大于各部分之和。
硅谷银行的破产是一个更宏大问题的体现:美国的金融体系对通胀的回归和随之而来的货币政策正常化完全缺乏准备。该银行的风险经理们极力否认这种结果,致使该银行因其1240亿美元未对冲债券组合出现大幅亏损而崩盘,引发了恐慌储户们的典型银行挤兑行为。
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