Renminbi stack of bills dollar Zhang Chunlei/ZumaPress

直面中国经济下滑风险

香港—长期停滞不振的阴影正在笼罩全球经济,中国也不例外。全球而言,2008年金融危机以来,前所未有的货币和财政刺激导致了债务、股票和房地产市场的泡沫纷纷创出新高,而贸易和投资却不断下降;这种资产虚胖而实体经济不振的状况抑制了有效需求、经济增长和通胀预期,使得中国市场化改革的实施变得更加复杂 。中国最近对人民币定价的市场化改革及相应的人民币贬值足以扭转经济低迷的趋势吗?

中国领导人不断表示要减少政府对经济的干预与控制、要推进结构改革来构建更加可持续的增长模式、要适应产出增长放缓的“新常态” 。但实体经济的风险却还在不断升高,体现在最近中国股市大波动中,并迫使政府介入稳定市场。此外,政策不确定性和市场波动也促使投资者和企业手握大量现金静观其变而不是积极投资,类似西方发达国家在危机后出现的实体经济长期停滞的压力也日益严重地威胁中国。

中国的增长数据远比日本、欧洲及美国好,算不上可怕,但要扭转实体经济下滑的趋势显然相当棘手。尽管实际年GDP增长似乎已经稳定在7%左右,但几乎所有关键经济指标——如名义GDP、固定资产投资、在建房地产面积、名义零售额、汽车销售、发电量、铁路货运量和铁矿石进口量——都远低于过去四年平均增长水平。

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