Lunar year hong kong Lam Yik Fei/Stringer

Трамп и юань

ГОНКОНГ – На недавно завершившемся годовом собрании Всемирного экономического форума в Давосе (Швейцария) председатель КНР Си Цзиньпин решительно выступил в защиту глобализации, подтвердив продолжение китайской политики «открытых дверей»; он пообещал никогда не начинать торговых войн или пытаться умышленно девальвировать китайскую валюту. Вскоре после этого президент США Дональд Трамп в своей инаугурационной речи дал прямо противоположное обещание: употребив слово «protect» семь раз, он подтвердил, что его доктрина «Америка на первом месте», по сути, означает «протекционизм».

Трамп говорит о США как о стране, у которой экономика находится в упадке и которая нуждается в оживлении. Однако в реальности состояние американской экономики в последние два года достаточно хорошее. Темпы восстановления после кризиса здесь выше, чем в других развитых странах; впечатляют цифры новых рабочих мест; происходит укрепление доллара.

Доллар особенно сильно укрепился за последние несколько месяцев, поскольку обещания Трампа повысить госрасходы, снизить налоги на бизнес и ослабить регулирование вызвали приток средств инвесторов, ищущих качественные активы. Между тем, китайский юань, наоборот, серьёзно ослаб (с 6,2 юаней за доллар в конце 2014 года до 6,95 юаней в конце прошлого года), прежде всего, из-за снижения объёмов инвестиций и экспорта.

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