Lunar year hong kong Lam Yik Fei/Stringer

Chine : quelle politique monétaire face à Trump ?

HONG KONG – Récemment, lors du Forum économique mondial qui se tient chaque année à Davos, le président chinois Xi Jinping s'est fait le héraut de la mondialisation en réaffirmant la politique d'ouverture de son pays et en s'engageant à ne jamais déclencher une guerre commerciale ou à chercher à bénéficier d'une dévaluation de la monnaie chinoise. Peu après, le président américain Trump a pris l'engagement opposé dans son discours d'investiture. Utilisant à sept reprises le mot "protéger", il a confirmé que sa doctrine de "L'Amérique d'abord" signifie le recours au protectionnisme.

Trump parle comme si l'économie des USA était en déclin et devait être relancée. En réalité l'état de leur économie est plutôt satisfaisant depuis deux ans. Son redémarrage est plus rapide que celui des autres économies avancées, la création d'emplois est impressionnante et le dollar est fort.

Depuis quelques mois la valeur du dollar a augmenté de manière notable, tandis que les promesses de Trump (augmentation des dépenses publiques, diminution de la fiscalité des entreprises et dérégulation) ont suscité chez les investisseurs une fuite vers la qualité. Par contre la devise chinoise, le yuan, a dégringolé - sa valeur passant de 0,16 à 0,14 dollar entre fin 2014 et fin 2016, essentiellement en raison de la baisse des investissements et des exportations.

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