Renminbi bank notes

A armadilha da taxa de câmbio da China

NOVA IORQUE – Desde há meses que a política cambial da China preocupa os mercados financeiros mundiais. Mais precisamente, a confusão acerca desta política tem vindo a agitar os mercados. As autoridades chinesas falharam na comunicação das suas intenções, encorajando a convicção de que não sabem o que estão a fazer.

Contudo, é mais fácil criticar a política chinesa do que oferecer conselhos construtivos. O facto é que o governo da China já não dispõe de boas opções. Não há dúvidas de que o país estaria melhor com uma taxa de câmbio mais flexível, que eliminasse as apostas unidireccionais para os especuladores e funcionasse como um amortecedor de choques económicos. No entanto, a literatura sobre "estratégias de saída" (sobre a forma de substituir a paridade cambial por uma taxa de câmbio mais flexível) deixa claro que o momento em que a China podia ter conduzido esta transição sem problemas já passou.

Os países só podem sair sem problemas de uma taxa estável quando há confiança na economia, estimulando a convicção de que uma taxa de câmbio mais flexível é susceptível de ser valorizada, bem como desvalorizada. Isto já pode ter sido verdade para a China, mas actualmente não o é.

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