Renminbi bank notes

La trappola del tasso di cambio della Cina

NEW YORK – È da mesi ormai che la politica dei tassi di cambio attuata dalla Cina crea delle turbolenze nei mercati finanziari globali. O meglio, la confusione su tale politica non fa che intorbidire i mercati. Non è stata una grande mossa quella delle autorità di Pechino che nel comunicare le proprie intenzioni hanno fatto credere di non sapere ciò che stanno facendo.

Ma criticare la politica cinese è più semplice che offrire consigli costruttivi. Il fatto è che il governo cinese non può contare su altre opzioni adeguate. Non v’è dubbio che il Paese starebbe meglio con un tasso di cambio più flessibile in grado di eliminare le scommesse a senso unico per gli speculatori e di agire come ammortizzatore degli shock economici. Ma la letteratura sulle “strategie di uscita” – su come sostituire l’ancoraggio della valuta con un tasso di cambio più flessibile – fa capire che il momento in cui la Cina avrebbe potuto affrontare tale transizione senza problemi ora è passato.

I Paesi possono lasciare l’ancoraggio della valuta in modo morbido solo quando c’è fiducia nell’economia, incoraggiando l’idea che un tasso di cambio più flessibile possa sia rafforzare che indebolire. Questo poteva valere per la Cina un tempo; ma ora non è più così.

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