Renminbi bank notes

中国汇率陷阱

纽约—几个月来,中国汇率政策一直在冲击全球金融市场。更准确地说,是中国汇率政策的模糊性一直在冲击全球金融市场。中国官员在沟通他们的意图方面做得太差,导致人们认为他们不知道他们在干什么。

但批评中国政策容易,提出建设性意见很难。事实是,中国政府已经没有什么好选择。毫无疑问,如果采取更具弹性的汇率,将打消投机者的单边押注,成为经济冲击吸收器,中国也将因此获益。但“退出战略”方面的文献——即关于如何以更具弹性的汇率取代货币盯住——清楚地表明,中国已经错失平稳过渡的时机。

一国要想平稳取消盯住汇率,唯有在人们对其经济充满信心时着手,让人们相信根据弹性的汇率既可以贬值,也可以升值。中国曾经拥有这样的机会,但今时已不同往日。

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