Renminbi bank notes

فخ سعر الصرف في الصين

نيويورك ــ ظَلَّت سياسة سعر الصرف في الصين على مدار عِدة أشهر تقض مضاجع الأسواق المالية العالمية. أو على نحو أكثر دِقة، كان الالتباس بشأن هذه السياسة يقض مضاجع الأسواق. إذ كان أداء المسؤولين الصينيين سيئاً في نقل نواياهم، الأمر الذي شجع الاعتقاد بأنهم لا يدرون ماذا يفعلون.

بيد أن انتقاد السياسة الصينية أسهل من تقديم المشورة البنّاءة. والحقيقة هي أن حكومة الصين لم تعد تملك أية خيارات جيدة. ولا شك أن البلاد ستكون أفضل حالاً مع سعر صرف أكثر مرونة يقضي على رهانات المضاربين في اتجاه واحد ويعمل كأداة لامتصاص الصدمات الاقتصادية. ولكن ما كُتِب عن "استراتيجيات الخروج" ــ حول كيفية الاستعاضة عن ربط العملة بسعر صرف أكثر مرونة ــ يبين بوضوح أن اللحظة حيث كان بوسع الصين أن تبحر عبر هذا التحول بسلاسة قد وَلَّت.

لا تستطيع أي دولة الخروج بسلاسة من سعر صرف مربوط إلا إذا كانت الثقة في الاقتصاد متوفرة، على النحو الذي يشجع الاعتقاد بأن سعر الصرف الأكثر مرونة قابل للارتفاع بقدر ما هو قابل للانخفاض. ولعل هذا كان ليصدق في حالة الصين ذات يوم؛ ولكنه لم يعد حقيقياً اليوم.

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