Beijing building in China

احتواء التباطؤ في الصين

سول ــ يعشق الخبراء والمثقفون مناقشة آفاق نمو الاقتصاد الصيني، والغَلَبة في أيامنا هذه للمتشائمين. لكن كثيرين يبنون توقعاتهم على تجارب اقتصادات أخرى، في حين كسرت الصين قالب النمو الاقتصادي طيلة العقود الثلاثة الماضية. فهل تكون آفاق الصين الاقتصادية إذن بهذا القدر من السوء الذي يوحي به الرأي السائد؟ وإذا كان الأمر كذلك، فكيف يمكن تحسينها؟

من المؤكد أن وضع الصين خطير. ففي العام الماضي بلغ معدل نمو الاقتصاد الصيني 7.4%، وهو أدنى معدل منذ عام 1990؛ ومن غير المرجح أن تتمكن الصين من تلبية الهدف الرسمي بنسبة 7% هذا العام، ووفقاً لصندوق النقد الدولي فربما ينمو اقتصاد الصين بنسبة 6.3% فقط في عام 2016. ومن الواضح أن ضعف النشاط المحلي وتراجع الطلب الخارجي من العوامل المؤثرة بشدة في هذا الصدد.

وتفقد الصين أيضاً زخم النمو الطويل الأمد، مع تسبب انخفاض معدلات الخصوبة والعائدات على الاستثمار في إضعاف توسع القوة العاملة وتراكم رأس المال. وقد أصبح من الصعب على نحو متزايد أن تستفيد الصين من مكاسب الإنتاجية المعتمدة على التكنولوجيا.

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