La economía china que viene

BEIJING – Tras más de 30 años de crecimiento extraordinario, la economía china está entrando a una senda de desarrollo más convencional, con un difícil rebalanceo que afecta casi todos los aspectos de la economía.

En primer lugar, el superávit de cuenta corriente de China se redujo desde el máximo de 10% del PIB en 2007 a poco más de 2% el año pasado, el nivel más bajo en nueve años. En el tercer trimestre de 2014, el superávit externo de China ascendió a 81.500 millones de dólares y los déficits de cuenta de capital y financiera sumaron 81.600 millones de dólares, señal de una balanza de pagos más estable.

Este cambio se explica en parte porque en los últimos dos años, los países desarrollados procuraron reindustrializarse para mejorar su competitividad comercial. Por ejemplo, en 2011 y 2012 la producción fabril estadounidense creció a un ritmo anual promedio del 4,3%, y el crecimiento de la fabricación de bienes duraderos alcanzó el 8%, un alza respecto del 4,1% y el 5,7% registrados en 2002 y 2007, respectivamente. De hecho, la industria manufacturera estadounidense ayudó a impulsar su recuperación macroeconómica.

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