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Keynes, Hayek et les marchés immobiliers chinois

HONG KONG – Les principales villes chinoises connaissent actuellement une flambée des prix de l'immobilier, ce qui suscite des prévisions contradictoires : soit celle d'un risque d'éclatement de bulles immobilières, soit celle d'une prochaine reprise économique. Que se passe-t-il réellement sur les marchés immobiliers en pleine ébullition de la Chine ?

Le Bureau national de statistique (BNS) chinois a révélé la semaine dernière que dix grandes et moyennes villes chinoises, sur les 70 villes interrogées, avaient enregistré des hausses de prix annuelles de plus de 20 % pour le logement commercial nouvellement construit. Dans les villes de premier rang comme Shanghai et Shenzhen, ces gains étaient encore plus élevés : supérieurs à 37 %. Dans les villes de deuxième rang comme Xiamen et Hefei, les augmentations ont dépassé les 40 %.

Chris Watling de Longview Economicscompare le marché immobilier actuel de la Chine à la crise de la tulipe hollandaise qui a atteint son sommet en 1637. Il souligne que les prix de l'immobilier, à Shenzhen en particulier, ont fait un bond de 76 % depuis le début de l'année 2015, ce qui met le prix d'une maison typique à 800 000 dollars, juste en dessous du prix moyen des maisons de la Silicon Valley. Cela peut faire penser selon lui à un dernier tour de piste avant un effondrement du marché.

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