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楼市背后的凯恩斯与哈耶克之争

香港—中国一线城市房地产价格正在暴涨,导致对经济前景针锋相对的预测:即将来临的泡沫破裂还是可以预见的宏观经济峰回路转?中国红得发紫的房地产市场究竟发生了什么?

国家统计局上周公布,70大中城市新建商品房价格同比增长超过20%的城市有10个,其中一线城市上海和深圳涨幅超过了37%,而二线城市厦门和合肥涨幅超过了40%。

长景经济顾问公司(Longview Economics)的克里斯·沃特林(Chris Watling)将当前的中国房地产市场比作 1637年见顶的荷兰郁金香狂热。他特别指出,深圳楼价自2015年初以来上涨了76%,使得当地典型住宅价格已高达800,000美元,仅比硅谷平均房价略低。他认为,这也许是市场崩溃前的最后疯狂。

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