Xi Jingping Ju Peng/ZumaPress

China busca un nuevo orden económico mundial

SHANGHÁI – Los economistas están cada vez más divididos en sus opiniones sobre el futuro económico de China: los optimistas enfatizan su capacidad para aprender y su rápida acumulación de capital humano; los pesimistas se centran en la rápida caída de su dividendo demográfico, su elevado coeficiente de deuda a PBI, la contracción de sus mercados para la exportación y su exceso de capacidad industrial. Pero ambos grupos descuidan un determinante más fundamental de las perspectivas económicas chinas: el orden mundial.

La pregunta es simple: ¿puede China mantener un rápido crecimiento de su PBI dentro de los límites del actual orden mundial –incluidas sus normas comerciales– o para ello es necesario un drástico cambio en el orden actual, dominado por EE. UU.? La respuesta, sin embargo, aún no es clara.

Una de las maneras en que China está tratando de descubrirlo es exigiendo que el renminbi sea incorporado a la canasta de monedas que determinan el valor del activo de reserva del Fondo Monetario Internacional, los Derechos Especiales de Giro (DEG). Al momento, esa canasta incluye al euro, al yen japonés, a la libra esterlina y al dólar estadounidense.

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