Xi Jingping Ju Peng/ZumaPress

中国追求世界经济新秩序

上海—经济学家对中国经济未来的看法日益分歧。乐观者强调中国的学习能力和快速积累人力资本的能力。悲观者关注中国人口红利的快速减少、高企的债务-GDP之比、出口市场的萎缩以及工业产能过剩。但这两派都忽略了一个更加基本的中国经济前景决定因素:世界秩序。

问题很简单:中国可以在当前全球秩序(包括其贸易规则)的约束下维持告诉GDP增长吗?还是当前由美国主导的秩序必须做出彻底改变以适应中国经济的持续崛起?但答案仍不明朗。

中国寻找答案的一个办法是促使人民币加入决定国际货币基金组织(IMF)储备资产——特别提款权(SDR)价值的货币篮子中。目前,这一货币篮子由欧元、日元、英镑和美元组成。

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