Xi Jingping Ju Peng/ZumaPress

الصين تسعى إلى فرض نظام اقتصادي عالمي جديد

شنغهاي ــ أصبح أهل الاقتصاد منقسمين بشكل متزايد عندما يتعلق الأمر بمستقبل الاقتصاد في الصين. فيؤكد المتفائلون على قدرتها على التعلم والحشد السريع لرأس المال البشري. ويركز المتشائمون على الانحدار السريع الطارئ على أرباحها الديموغرافية، وارتفاع نسبة الدين إلى ناتجها المحلي الإجمالي، وانكماش أسواق صادراتها، وقدرتها الصناعية الفائضة. ولكن أفراد المجموعتين يهملون عاملاً أكثر جوهرية في تحديد آفاق الصين الاقتصادية: النظام العالمي.

والسؤال بسيط: هل تستطيع الصين أن تحافظ على نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي السريع في كنف النظام العالمي الحالي، بما في ذلك قواعده التجارية، أم أن النظام الحالي الذي تهيمن عليه الولايات المتحدة لابد أن يتغير بشكل جذري لكي يستوعب الصعود الاقتصادي المستمر للصين؟ ولكن الإجابة تظل غير واضحة.

الواقع أن الصين تسعى إلى استكشاف الإجابة من خلال ممارسة الضغوط لإضافة الرنمينبي إلى سلة العملات التي تحدد قيمة الأصل الاحتياطي لدى صندوق النقد الدولي، أو ما يسمى حقوق السحب الخاصة. في الوقت الحالي تتألف السلة من اليورو، والين الياباني، والجنيه الإسترليني، والدولار الأميركي.

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