China shopping mall Whitehotpix/ZumaPress

La nueva normalidad lenta de China

MILÁN – Todo indica que las dos economías más grandes del mundo, Estados Unidos y China, atraviesan una desaceleración secular. Pero todavía quedan grandes dudas sobre sus trayectorias futuras de crecimiento, lo cual incide seriamente en cuestiones de valoración de activos, riesgo y política económica.

Aparentemente, Estados Unidos se estabiliza en una tasa de crecimiento real (ajustada por inflación) de alrededor del 2% anual (aunque la cuestión de si es superior o inferior al potencial de la economía todavía es objeto de arduo debate). En cuanto a China, parece ir rumbo al 6 o 7% que el año pasado el gobierno señaló como “nueva normalidad” de la economía. Algunos observadores coinciden en que ese valor es sostenible durante una década más o menos, siempre que el gobierno implemente un conjunto integral de reformas en estos próximos años. Pero otros prevén que el crecimiento del PIB chino seguirá una tendencia declinante con posibilidad de aterrizaje forzoso.

Sin duda, hay motivos para preocuparse. Estados Unidos y China se enfrentan a un panorama económico más difícil creado por el crecimiento lento e incierto de Europa (uno de los principales socios comerciales de ambos países).

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