China shopping mall Whitehotpix/ZumaPress

Die langsamere neue Normalität Chinas

MAILAND – In den Vereinigten Staaten und China, den beiden weltweit größten Volkswirtschaften, scheint sich die Wirtschaft säkular abzuschwächen. Die Wachstumsentwicklung dort bleibt weiterhin unsicher, was deutliche Auswirkungen auf die Vermögenspreise, die Risiken und die Wirtschaftspolitik hat.

In den USA scheint sich eine reale (inflationsangepasste) Wachstumsrate von etwa 2% durchzusetzen. Ob dies dem wirtschaftlichen Potenzial entspricht oder darunter liegt, wird immer noch intensiv diskutiert. China hingegen scheint etwa 6-7% Wachstum zu verzeichnen, was letztes Jahr von der Regierung als „neue Normalität“ der Wirtschaft bezeichnet wurde. Einige Beobachter stimmen überein, dass dieser Wert über die nächsten etwa zehn Jahre unter der Voraussetzung beibehalten werden kann, dass die Regierung demnächst umfassende Reformen durchführt. Andere wiederum erwarten ein weiteres Abschwächen der BIP-Wachstumsraten des Landes und halten eine harte Landung für möglich.

Dies ist sicherlich ein Grund zur Besorgnis. Das langsame und unsichere Wachstum in Europa – einem großen Handelspartner der USA und Chinas – wirkt für die beiden Länder als Wachstumsbremse.

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