China shopping mall Whitehotpix/ZumaPress

Ralentissement économique et nouvelle normalité chinoise

MILAN – Les deux premières puissances économiques de la planète, les USA et la Chine, sont enlisées semble-t-il dans un ralentissement prolongé. Mais leur trajectoire de croissance reste encore très incertaine, ce qui est lourd de conséquences pour le prix des actifs, la politique économique et la prise de risque sur les marchés. 

Le taux de croissance réel (ajusté en fonction de l'inflation) des USA parait se stabiliser autour de 2% par an. La question de savoir si ce taux est inférieur au potentiel de croissance du pays fait l'objet d'âpres débats. Quant à la Chine, son taux de croissance réel pourrait se stabiliser à 6 ou 7%, ce que le gouvernement chinois qualifie de nouvelle normalité économique. Certains observateurs pensent que ce taux pourra être maintenu au cours de la prochaine décennie si le gouvernement met en œuvre les  réformes voulues au cours des prochaines années ; mais d'autres s'attendent à ce que la baisse de la croissance se prolonge, avec le risque d'un atterrissage brutal.

Il y a matière à s'inquiéter. La croissance faible et incertaine en Europe, un partenaire commercial majeur tant pour les USA que pour la Chine, est source de problème pour ces deux pays.

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